LESSONS LEARNED IN THE FIRST ROUND OF THE NBA PLAYOFFS

  • The NBA Playoffs this year showed younger teams outperforming experienced, veteran teams, signaling a changing of the guard.
  • The formula for NBA Playoff success now favors physicality and athleticism over skill and experience, emphasizing size.
  • Teams need to prepare for injuries in the NBA Playoffs, with several star players missing games, exposing a lack of depth.

Every year, the NBA Playoffs treat fans to two months of exciting basketball but also teach us valuable lessons about what wins at the highest level in the current league.

This year's first round was no different, as the results of each series can provide evidence of the formula teams should strive for in the future.

As the second round starts, let's take a look at what we learned from the eight first-round series.

It's a Young Man's League

Younger players have taken over by outperforming the veterans

The NBA Playoffs are typically known for the success that experienced, veteran teams usually have over-talented but inexperienced squads. Younger cores on the rise typically need to pay their dues and accumulate battle scars over multiple failed playoff runs together before breaking through.

The two championship favorites have a group of players that have been together for several years, in the Boston Celtics and Denver Nuggets. Their best players experienced heartbreak in the playoffs multiple times and learned what it takes to win at the highest level.

This year, however, has signaled a changing of the guard. Nearly every veteran-led team is sitting at home after just the first round, such as LeBron James' Los Angeles Lakers, Kevin Durant's Phoenix Suns, Stephen Curry's Golden State Warriors, Kawhi Leonard's Los Angeles Clippers, Giannis Antetokounmpo's Milwaukee Bucks, and Jimmy Butler's Miami Heat.

Age in the NBA Playoffs

Team

Average Age

Result

Thunder

23.8

Won 4-0

Pacers

25.1

Won 4-2

Timberwolves

25.7

Won 4-0

Knicks

26.1

Won 4-2

Heat

27.6

Lost 4-1

Suns

28.1

Lost 4-0

76ers

28.5

Lost 4-2

Warriors

28.5

Lost Play-In

Bucks

28.8

Lost 4-2

Clippers

29.1

Lost 4-2

These are the players who have consistently run the league and played in the biggest playoff games for the past decade-plus, but their older teams failed to compete with the youthful exuberance that these hungry squads bring. Teams like the Oklahoma City Thunder, Minnesota Timberwolves, Indiana Pacers, and Cleveland Cavaliers have thrived in the physical, fast-paced environment of the NBA playoffs.

Formula for Deep NBA Playoff Runs has Changed

Physicality and athleticism reign supreme over skill and experience

It seems that the formula to win multiple playoff series in the NBA has changed from being primarily skill-focused alongside execution and IQ to whichever team has the most size, physicality, and athleticism. For the past fifteen years, the game has been more skill and execution-based, and these aspects of the game are still important but are being trumped by teams and players with overwhelming physical advantages.

The changes in refereeing that the NBA made towards a lighter whistle have led to an even more physical playoff environment than normal, furthering the need for bigger, more athletic players. The 2024 first round of the playoffs was a throwback to the 1990s and 2000s era of basketball, except with much more skill and athleticism on the floor.

There were several perfect examples of this dynamic in the first round. Perhaps the most shocking instance was the Timberwolves' sweep of the Big Three Suns, where Anthony Edwards, Rudy Gobert, and the rest of Minnesota's tremendous athletes suffocated Phoenix's finesse offense. The Suns simply couldn't "tough-shotmake" their way past the huge advantages in rebounding, defense, and hustle that Minnesota showcased, leading to a dominant sweep. NBA fans watched Edwards take the torch from Durant in real time as he outclassed the Suns' Big Three by himself.

Another jarring example of this trend came in the Milwaukee-Indiana series, where the age and lack of speed from the Bucks jumped off the screen. The youthful Pacers, who featured seven rotation players in their athletic primes, played an extremely fast-paced style of game. The aging Bucks simply couldn't keep up with any of these Pacers in transition, while struggling to stay in front of their ball-handlers.

Obviously, Milwaukee suffered injuries to their two most important players, but their roster is way too old to compete with Indiana's even when fully healthy, which was reflected in their regular-season domination.

Additionally, Dallas' superior size and athleticism of both their stars and role players compared to the Clippers was the difference in the series. Paul George and James Harden are just not physically imposing at this point in their careers, while Luka Dončić has incredible size and strength and Kyrie Irving is arguably the league's quickest ball-handler. The additions of springy athletes like Derrick Jones Jr., Daniel Gafford, and PJ Washington were also a huge difference in the series.

Lastly, the New York Knicks beat Philadelphia almost solely on the back of their unyielding physicality, rebounding, defense, and hustle. The 76ers had the more talented roster skill-wise and had two elite shot-creators to New York's one, but the Knicks dominated the series with heart because of the culture Tom Thibodeau has instilled.

Teams Top 10 in DRTG/REB%

Team

DRTG Rank

REB% Rank

Playoff Result

Timberwolves

1st

8th

Won 4-0

Celtics

2nd

5th

Won 4-1

Knicks

9th

1st

Won 4-2

Nuggets

8th

6th

Won 4-1

Magic

3rd

4th

Lost 4-3

Injuries Cannot Be an Excuse, Especially for Veteran Teams

Teams need to prepare for the inevitable injury bug in the playoffs

Injuries always play a big part in the outcome of the NBA Playoffs, and this year was as bad as any in recent memory. Antetokounmpo, Damian Lillard, Julius Randle, Jimmy Butler, Kawhi Leonard, and Zion Williamson all missed time in the first round, and only Randle's Knicks were able to overcome their star's injuries and advance. Furthermore, several other team leaders such as Dončić, Donovan Mitchell, and Joel Embiid were all hampered by injury in their series.

Fans and front offices often like to dismiss a disappointing ending by referencing their sidelined players, which can be fair in some cases, but shouldn't gloss over roster weaknesses or lack of depth that also contributed to their loss. Nearly half the teams in the playoff field were heavily affected by their star player's injury, and none of them were prepared for what seemed inevitable.

Star Player Injuries

Player

Missed Playoff Games

Result

Antetokounmpo

6

Lost 4-2

Lillard

1

Lost 4-2

Butler

5

Lost 4-1

Leonard

4

Lost 4-2

Williamson

4

Lost 4-0

Randle

6

Won 4-2

The Bucks' duo being hurt was somewhat predictable, as Lillard is 33 and Antetokounmpo was forced to go all-out during the regular season to carry a weak, slow roster. Leonard has now missed his fourth consecutive playoff run, leaving the Clippers with no backup plan, while Butler's knee sprain at age 34 shouldn't be a surprise for a Heat team that is so heavily reliant on him.

Williamson's season ended in pain for the fourth time in five campaigns, and Embiid was banged up during yet another playoff run.

These teams need to stop counting on their injury-prone superstars to be healthy for two straight months of intense playoff basketball, and instead prepare backup plans to address possible injury with better depth and secondary scoring options. Of course, this is easier said than done, but otherwise, their squads will be left disappointed yet again next year.

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2024-05-08T02:42:59Z dg43tfdfdgfd